An intense analysis of raw radar tracking data after the accident revealed the 'mystery object' a piece which separated from Columbia the day after launch and reentered the Earth's atmosphere a couple of days later.
NASA and the CAIB only released sketchy information about the Mystery Object and the analysis which was being performed by satellite tracking experts. Based on the limited details provided in the CAIB's press conferences satellite tracker Ted Molczan was able to determine an orbit for the object. How quickly the object reentered the Earth's atmosphere gave an indication of its composition. Author Philip Chien was able to determine that the best candidate was something made out of "Reinforced Carbon-Carbon", the material which forms the leading edge panels of the wings and the T-seals which connect the RCC panels.
A month later USSTRATCOM released technical information describing the orbit of the mystery object. For the technically interested the two line elements for the Mystery object are -
STS 107 debris 1 27713U 03003B 03018.89361124 .04158089 28060-1 63330-2 0 15 2 27713 39.0177 214.2209 0013015 7.8234 352.0943 16.06862990 17
The CAIB released a graphic showing the orbit of the mystery object relative to Columbia's orbit. The dots show the radar hits recorded at Beale AFB, Cape Cod AFB, Eglin AFB (seen in the image on the right), and the NAVSPASUR network. By connecting a line between the dozen radar contacts an orbit could be extrapolated, indicating that the piece had to come from Columbia. The rate at which the object decreased its altitude and reentered gave an indication of the object's composition.
The most likely candidate for the 'mystery object' is a piece of the T-seal (portion of the thermal protection system which protects the front of the shuttle's wing) or a chunk of a RCC panel.
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